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A Conviction is a creator-backed binary market. The creator makes a testable claim, defines how it will be resolved, picks the side they believe in, and places a seed order. Everyone else can then trade YES or NO through the same order-book mechanics as any other event market. The difference from a standard market is authorship: someone put their own money behind the claim before you saw it.

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Trading someone else’s Conviction

Trading works exactly as it does elsewhere — see Place an order. Two things are worth extra attention:
  • The rules were written by a user, not a desk. Run the six checks properly. Creator-written resolution criteria vary more in quality than curated markets.
  • The thesis is not the rule. A creator can attach an argument for their side. It explains their view; it does not change the formal resolution condition. If the two seem to disagree, the rule wins.

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What makes a good Conviction

Whether you’re creating one or judging one:
  • One claim that resolves to exactly two outcomes.
  • A precise subject, threshold and time window.
  • Primary evidence that will still exist at resolution time.
  • Outcome wording that covers YES and NO with no overlap and no gap.
  • A thesis that explains the view without muddying the rule.

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Reporting

Once a Conviction is live, you can report it as spam, duplicate, illegal or unresolvable. A report creates a review signal — it does not automatically hide or pause the market.

Create a Conviction

The five-step creation flow, and what happens after you submit.