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A prediction share pays according to the final market outcome. In a binary market, one winning share pays 1andonelosingsharepays1 and one losing share pays 0. If YES trades at 40¢, buying 100 YES shares costs 40beforefees.IfYESwins,thegrosspayoutis40 before fees. If YES wins, the gross payout is 100. If NO wins, those shares pay $0. Your maximum loss is what you paid, plus any applicable fee.

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Price as a probability

Traders often read a 40¢ price as roughly a 40% market-implied chance. The shorthand is useful but incomplete. The visible quote is affected by:
  • the spread between the best bid and the best ask
  • shallow or one-sided liquidity
  • stale resting orders
  • fees
  • the gap between the best executable price and a chart’s midpoint or last trade
Use the executable price in the trade ticket as the basis for cost and expected payout — not a rounded percentage on a card.

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Payout multiples

A market card may show a payout multiple. Before fees, a share bought at 40¢ has a gross payout multiple of 1÷1 ÷ 0.40 = 2.5× if it wins. The multiple compares the winning redemption value with your purchase price. It does not describe how likely the outcome is, and it does not promise a return.

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Why YES and NO don’t always add to 100%

In a live order book, the best available YES and NO quotes can sum to more or less than $1. They come from different orders, on different sides, in different sizes, placed at different times. This is normal. It is also why the trade ticket — which prices your actual size against the actual book — is the number that matters.
A quoted price is not a guaranteed exit price. If you want to sell before resolution, what you receive depends on the bids available at that moment.